Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 182

Chapter 182: Chapter 69, The Moment of Test Has Come

Translator: 549690339

Franz did not like to engage in conspiracies and deceptions, but sadly, his strength did not allow it.

For example, the plan that involved England, France, and Russia was initially an overt strategy, but somehow it turned into a covert one.

There is often a fine line between a conspiracy and an overt strategy. There is no single strongest approach; the most suitable one is always the best.

What would happen if Franz’s plan were disclosed to Nicholas I?

The answer is: nothing would happen, and Nicholas I would simply laugh it off.

Between nations, mutual exploitation and calculation are normal. Expecting intimate and seamless cooperation is foolish; it simply does not exist.

Mature politicians only care about what their allies have done, the results it has brought about, and they weigh the pros and cons to determine the relationship between the two countries, rather than considering what their allies might be thinking.

So, if you must betray your allies, you must be skilled at it. If you’re not skilled enough and get betrayed instead, don’t cry. There’ll be plenty more betrayals to come!

Take, for instance, Franz now plotting against the Russians. As long as Austria fulfills its alliance obligations, it remains Russia’s most steadfast ally, and Russo-Austrian relations remain unaffected.

Even if Franz now tells Nicholas I that Austria is sending troops to help, the Russians would not be pleasantly surprised, but rather more likely alarmed.

How much effort one puts in, that’s how much of the spoils they share; this is the foundation of the Russo-Austrian alliance. Once the distribution of benefits becomes unbalanced, the alliance loses its value.

The Russo-Austrian Alliance is an equal treaty, with no subsidiary relationship. If Austria fulfills its alliance duties and then takes on additional obligations, naturally the distribution of the spoils will have to change.

In the war now occurring in the Balkan Peninsula, the Russians do not need Austro-Hungarian auxiliary troops—The Tsarist Government is not one to cherish gray beasts. They would not exchange benefits for the sake of reducing casualties at the front.

Strategically speaking, if Austria attacked the Ottoman Empire, the optimal route for troop deployment would be identical to the current Russian deployment.

This is decided by logistics, transporting strategic materials through the Danube Basin and entering Bulgaria through the lower plains of the Danube, which is far superior to crossing over from Bosnia and Herzegovina or Serbia.

The outcome of this war is not determined by the amount of Ottoman territory occupied, but rather by whether Constantinople can be conquered.

As long as the Russians occupy Constantinople, the English and French navies will have to withdraw from the Black Sea Strait; otherwise, if the Russians block the Bosphorus Strait, they would be like turtles trapped in a jar.

With control over the Black Sea maritime rights, logistics can be transported by sea. Given the national strengths of Russia and Austria, sustaining an army of a million on the Balkan Peninsula is hardly an issue.

Unlike now, regardless of how hard the Russian Army tries, the maximum force it can deploy to the Balkan Peninsula is around four to five hundred thousand. Any more, and they wouldn’t even need the enemy to fight them—their logistics would collapse on their own.

With the Austrian Army deployed, this number would have to be reduced by at least a quarter.

The gray beasts are known as the cheapest army in Europe for a reason. Their logistical requirements are the lowest among all the major powers’ armies.

In modern warfare, being behind in weapons and equipment, having fewer cannons, also means less logistical pressure.

Is the Tsarist Government short of soldiers?

After losing a few hundred thousand, they would just replenish with a few hundred thousand more. If the Austrian Army were involved in capturing Constantinople, they could forget about monopolizing the Black Sea Strait.

National interest is very pragmatic; do not expect allies to bring their own provisions to help without a purpose.

The Black Sea is quite small, and the Russians have long considered it their own private land. They would be unwilling to share a piece of it with Austria.

With the current alliance, the Russians can reap the greatest benefit—what they pay is merely the casualties of a bunch of grey livestock. What the Tsarist Government is least short of is people.

Metternich said, “Your Majesty, the Russian Envoy to Vienna came to me yesterday. They intend to send more troops to the Balkan Peninsula and hope we can provide more war supplies.

An initial judgment indicates that the participation of England and France has prompted this decision by the Tsarist Government. It seems they want to display their determination to the outside world by reinforcing their troops.”

Franz thought for a moment and said, “The matter of providing strategic materials is manageable. As long as the Russians are willing to pay, we’ll sell to them.

Marshal, I’d like to know how many troops England, France, and the Ottomans can deploy to the Balkan Peninsula, and whether the Russians can gain the upper hand after reinforcing their numbers?”

After contemplating, Marshal Radetzky replied, “Your Majesty, considering logistics, the total forces England, France, and the Ottomans can deploy right now won’t exceed 800,000.

However, as the Russian front keeps pushing forward, they’ll be able to deploy more troops, and it’s possible for them to engage in a decisive battle along the coastal regions with up to a million troops.

But that’s an ideal figure. Securing the strategic materials needed to sustain such a large army is a big problem.

The Ottoman Empire can at most handle about two thirds of it; the rest needs to be transported from England and France themselves.

Considering the cost of the war, England and France are likely to choose to arm cheap Ottoman cannon fodder to fight the Russians. Whether the Russians can hold an advantage on the battlefield after reinforcement will depend on the proportion of English and French troops involved.

Strategically, I am not optimistic about the Russians achieving their goals. Due to the loss of naval power in the Black Sea, Russian supply mainly relies on transportation by the Danube River.

Yet, as the front line advances, the distance required for land transportation keeps increasing.

In a decisive battle in Bulgaria, the Russians can deploy a maximum of 500,000 troops; if it comes to the Istanbul area, they can deploy at most 400,000 troops.

The actual situation could be even worse; after all, the Ottomans have been operating in the Balkans for hundreds of years, and it would be difficult for the Russians to quickly eliminate their influence in those areas after occupation.

The Ottomans will certainly organize guerrilla groups to sabotage the Russian supply lines, increasing logistical difficulties for the Russians.

If the war cannot be concluded swiftly, the longer it drags on, the lower the probability of the Russians winning the war.”

Franz smiled slightly; this was exactly the outcome he wanted. A Russia unable to win the war is a good ally for Austria.

Even under pressure from England and France, Russian-Austrian relations could possibly further improve. With a solid rear guard, Austria can cultivate its fields in peace.

Now Franz was looking forward to Nicholas I’s determination, to extend the duration of this war.

Previous Tsars have set a good example, and there is a Russian saying, “A Tsar who has not fought a Russo-Turkish War is certainly not a good Tsar!”

Russo-Turkish Wars usually last four or five years, essentially occurring once in a generation. Except for the last Russo-Turkish War, the shortest have started at three years, and some have lasted more than ten years.

In military terms, the possibility of Russian failure is very small. Attack when winning, defend when not.

In a war of attrition, what the Russians cannot afford is financial loss, while England and France cannot afford the loss of manpower.

Russia might endure the loss of hundreds of thousands of able-bodied men, able to muster tens of thousands more without the nobility caring about the soldiers’ casualties; but when England and France lose tens of thousands of their vigorous youth, they must consider the domestic situation.

As long as the Russians refuse to admit defeat and are willing to sacrifice lives, England and France, even with all their might, cannot completely defeat them.

Unless England and France dare to attack Russian territory, advancing from the Baltic Sea all the way to St. Petersburg, no matter how the fighting goes in the Near East, they cannot claim the life of the Russian bear.

This means that if the Russians cannot win the war quickly, the factors determining the outcome of the conflict come into question: the financial endurance of the Russians, and the ability of England and France to tolerate casualties.

After all, this war is not as grave as a world war; none of the three countries, England, France, or Russia have reached the point of life or death where they must fight desperately.

Franz said indifferently, “Mobilize our strength for one more push. The French have entered the fray, but the British expeditionary force is still at home. The stage is set, and they cannot miss this grand spectacle.”

John Bull’s integrity is truly too low; if we do not push them onto the battlefield, the London Government might make the same choice as Austria.

Moreover, how can we ensure that the British behave more cautiously in their actions following Austria, if they do not experience first-hand the brutality of land warfare?

London

Because the Ottoman Empire suffered a major defeat in the Battle of Bulgaria, the initially prepared symbolic British deployment of twenty thousand troops clearly could not meet the warfare’s demands.

In the recent negotiations in Paris, Palmerston had no choice but to increase the number of British troops, from twenty thousand to eighty thousand.

To any major land power, eighty thousand troops would be a minor issue, something that could be assembled in ten days to half a month, but for the British, it was different.

With their pocket-sized army totaling only a hundred thousand or more, withdrawing such a large force of troops at once clearly entailed great difficulty.

“Mr. Palmerston, why did you unilaterally increase the number of troops? Do you realize the trouble this will cause us?” Army Minister Maxim asked, dissatisfied.

Palmerston explained confidently, “Mr. Maxim, it is a political necessity. In the aftermath of the recent major battle, the Ottoman Empire suffered heavy losses, and our initial plan could no longer satisfy the needs of the war.

To curb Russian ambitions, we must commit more forces.

The French have agreed to send an additional one hundred and twenty thousand troops. Together with the fifty thousand they’ve already dispatched, that makes a total of one hundred and seventy thousand. Under these circumstances, we also had to increase the number of our troops.

Moreover, twenty thousand troops in battle is simply too risky; a slight misstep could even result in their annihilation.

If we had eighty thousand, it’d be much safer — no need to worry about being swallowed in one gulp by the Russians, and you at the Army Department wouldn’t have to be constantly on edge.”

Hearing Palmerston’s explanation only intensified Maxim’s anger. He admitted that compared to the Royal Navy, the British Army really didn’t measure up.

But such contempt was too much. It was well known that the British Army’s fighting capability was not weak; it was only due to their small numbers that they didn’t rank among the powerful nations.

“Mr. Palmerston, are you questioning the combat effectiveness of the Army?” Maxim glared at Palmerston with red eyes and demanded.

Such matters could be set aside in private, but openly slapping the face of the Army was too much. The weakness of the British Army was due to the lack of military funding, not because of their lack of effort.

Realizing his slip of the tongue, Palmerston immediately corrected himself, “No, Mr. Maxim. On the contrary, I have great confidence in the combat capability of the army.

As the saying goes, the greater the ability, the greater the responsibility to be borne on the battlefield. If our forces are too few, it is easy for the Russians to exploit the gap.”

He didn’t believe these words himself. Even if the United Kingdom sent the fewest troops within the Alliance, it would still be the Ottomans that ended up as cannon fodder. How could the British Army be risked?

Maxim let out a cold snort, “Hmph!”

The interlude passed.

Prime Minister John Russell changed the subject, “Mr. Maxim, our allies are getting impatient. How long will it take for the army to be ready?”

John Russell held the Ottoman Empire in contempt.

After all, it was once a great Empire that had dominated the whole of European society, and now it was so easily pummeled into the ground by the Russians. It was a complete disgrace to their ancestors.

Contempt aside, they were still allies and needed to join forces against a common enemy. However, the Ottomans’ say within the Alliance had dropped another two notches.

Maxim had been waiting for this question for a while, and he replied indirectly, “Your Excellency, let’s expand our army!”

This was an awkward topic. Because of the British focus on naval power, the size of the army had never quite increased.

A hundred thousand troops were needed to maintain the vast Overseas Colonies, so how many were left at home?

Withdrawing twenty thousand troops, they might be able to make do. But withdrawing eighty thousand would mean stripping the homeland of all its troops.

Holding back troops in the homeland was a necessity, even if only to keep Ireland region under control, let alone strip the nation completely of its domestic forces.

The quantity of troops in the Overseas Colonies was not abundant enough to allow any withdrawal. Of course, the British had a considerable number of Colonial troops in hand. If they could be factored in, the numbers could quickly be met.

John Russell rubbed his forehead, then asked, “How much are you planning to expand the army by?”

Maxim answered cheerfully, “Not much. The Army Department doesn’t ask for much, just an additional 120,000 men will do.”

Hearing this number, John Russell shook his head and said, “Mr. Maxim, there’s no problem in wanting to expand the army by 120,000 men, as long as you can persuade Parliament.”

Maxim’s face turned red; convincing Parliament would not be this easy, or the size of the British Army would have stopped being so miniature a long time ago.

In this era, as the only industrial country among the powers, and the world’s foremost Colonial Empire, Great Britain truly had wealth to spare. Even maintaining an extra hundred thousand troops or more wouldn’t be a concern.

Maxim said calmly, “Your Excellency, the army’s manpower is limited, and there are too many places to defend. The total number of troops left in the country is just over seventy thousand.

“Withdrawing twenty thousand troops is already a stretch. If we are to withdraw eighty thousand, even if I count in the janitors from the Army Department, we wouldn’t have enough.”

This was a good opportunity for expansion, and naturally, the Army Department would not let it slip by. With each expansion came a great deal of benefits, and of course, Maxim would fight for it to the greatest extent possible.

“But expanding by 120,000 all at once is still too many. I can’t convince Parliament. It’s still the same as before: as long as you have the ability to persuade Parliament, then there’s no problem.” John Russell opposed without changing his expression.